Current Economic Conditions

Where is the U.S. currently operating on the Phillips Curve?. Current US position on Phillips Curve

The current U.S. output gap is narrowing, but real GDP remains about 5% below potential... US Output Gap

Monthly Business Cycle Indicators

The NBER uses a collection of monthly indicators to determine the exact month in which a business cycle peak and trough occur. An index of these indicators suggests the economy is recovering, but not yet expanding... NBER cyclical indicator

Current Credit Spreads

Despite low policy rates, maturity and risk spreads combined are keeping BAA bond yields over 6 percent US credit spreads

 

Economic Data

Welcome to MacroRules.com!

MacroRules is a website devoted to presenting the theory and tools of modern macroeconomic theory in a way that facilitates practical application by a wide audience.

The goal of MacroRules is to provide a free and open on-line educational resource to help bridge the rather large gap between the rather simple IS/LM and AD/AS graphs taught in college macroeconomics courses and the complex econometric and computational models used by professional macroeconomists.  It is well-suited for students currently in MBA and MPA programs, professionals working in business and finance, government policy makers and academics in social science fields who seek a deeper understanding of what exactly it is that Ph.D. macroeconomists do.

Study without desire spoils the memory, and it retains nothing that it takes in.

- Leonardo Di Vinci

What Can I Find at MacroRules?

Why Use MacroRules?

Are there better websites? Are there better textbooks? Yes, there are many excellent resources available to those wishing to study macroeconomics, and MacroRules is neither superior nor a substitute for what any of these do. The value of this web site, we believe, is that it has a unique objective.  Government agencies have websites filled with data, but generally offer little analysis. Many academic economists operate blogs offering wonderful insights on current events - but few if any blogs provide a comprehensive "course" to serve as context for understanding opinion.  Undergraduate textbooks are generally excellent at helping students become literate consumers of economic research, but they're not great at helping would-be producers of research. While graduate macroeconomics textbooks are, they are usually filled with  lengthy derivations and pathologies of interest to those wishing to advance macroeconomic theory but not necessarily to those who wish to apply it. 

Modern macroeconomic theory has advanced to the point where being conversant in its latest developments requires a mathematical and formal theoretical background that few people without a doctorate possess.  This trend has had two unfortunate consequences - it has reduced the utility of academic research for practitioners and, in so doing, has removed an important source of feedback from the policy world to academia - lessening the relative importance of "practical value" among the various criteria determining the research priorities of academics.  Although creating one more web resource alone cannot alter this dynamic, hopefully MacroRules can help.

Macroeconomics: A Practical Approach  (Table of Contents)

Level Title Description
Basic Origins of the macroeconomy Discusses the gains from specialization, the concept of PPFs, the invisible hand and the First Welfare Theorem, and the problem of coordination in non-cooperative games
Basic A very basic model of the business cycle a simple derivation of the AD/AS model
Intermediate A Primer on Growth Theory  A compact presentation of neoclassical growth theory
Intermediate An Empirically-Derived Macro ModelBusiness Cycle AD/AS model built from empirically observed relationships, rather than a priori reasoning.
IntermediateNotes on Statistics and EconometricsDiscusses estimation, the logic of statistical inference, specification search and time series modeling.
AdvancedTheories of the AS CurveCandidate explanations for the output-inflation tradeoff

Why economists need to communicate better...

Paul Krugman has wondered what undergraduates need to know about trade theory.  But what do economists need to know about trade reality? More…seattle nov 30 protests

A very, very simple business cycle model 

The AD/AS model is one of the most useful conceptual tools in macroeconomic theory... but it is -- by intention -- intellectually dishonest and misleading way, by appealing to familiar arguments about supply and demand.  Here is a very simple way to present the AD/AS model ... More…

Macroeconomics Links

Research: Data:
A Macro Blog Roll